Friday 2025-04-04

12:00 am - USA ISM services PMI

Institute for Supply Management (ISM) (Purchasing Managers’ Index)

Scale: 0 to 100

Above 50 → Expansion in services sector
Below 50 → Contraction

Example Impact

If the ISM Services PMI rises unexpectedly (e.g., from 54.9 to 56), it may trigger bullish sentiment for USD pairs like USD/JPY or EUR/USD = Conversely, a drop below 50 could prompt traders to short the USD, anticipating dovish Fed moves

Numbers

Previous: 53.5
Expected: 53
Actual: 50.8 (Deviation -1.10)

My expectations

I expect a small short of the USA; maybe like 20 pips.

Actual result

EUR/USD

Extra volume, 24 pip up for EUR. Followed by 4 USD up candles (EUR/USD candles).

USD/CAD

22 pip USA drop followed by a slower longer rise.

AUD/USD (not on the list)

Actually USD actually went up, the opposite to what I expected, by 35 pips

USD/JPY

Big 35 pip fake drop. Would have been nasty to have a trade open at that time.

10:30 pm - CAD + USA combined

Currency	Event	Actual	Deviation	Expected	Previous
CAD	Net Change in Employment (Mar)	-32.6K	-1.34	12K	1.1K
CAD	Unemployment Rate (Mar)	6.7%	0.00	6.7%	6.6%
USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Mar)	0.3%	0.00	0.3%	0.2%
USD	Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Mar)	3.8%	-0.67	3.9%	3.9%
USD	Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)	228K	1.44	135K	102K

This data set paints a clear divergence between U.S. and Canadian labor market performance for March, which is likely to strengthen USD/CAD — meaning the U.S. dollar could rise against the Canadian dollar.

🇺🇸 U.S. Labor Market: Stronger Than Expected

Nonfarm Payrolls: 228K vs 135K expected → Big upside surprise【+1.44 deviation】
MoM Earnings: 0.3% as expected, but up from 0.2% prior → steady wage growth
YoY Earnings: Slight miss at 3.8% vs 3.9%, but still robust

These figures suggest resilient job creation and stable wage growth, which could support continued Fed hawkishness or delay rate cuts — bullish for USD.

🇨🇦 Canadian Labor Market: Weaker Than Expected

Net Employment Change: -32.6K vs +12K expected → significant downside surprise【-1.34 deviation】
Unemployment Rate: 6.7%, unchanged from expected, but up from 6.6% prior

This signals labor market deterioration, which may pressure the Bank of Canada to ease policy or at least hold rates — bearish for CAD.

💱 USD/CAD Outlook

Expected Impact: USD/CAD likely to rise, reflecting stronger U.S. fundamentals and weaker Canadian data.
Short-Term Bias: Bullish USD/CAD, especially if oil prices (a CAD driver) aren’t rallying to offset the employment miss.