Introduction

• Dates: 2025-04-01-2025-10-28

• Pairs:

  • EUR/USD
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CAD

• News items: only 3 star events

• Time zone: Brisbane (UTC+10)

• The "deviation" scale is from fxstreet.com, and measures surprise from deviating results, and ranges from -7 to 7

Non Farm Payrolls

nfp-april

We expect USD to go up.

EUR/USD

We expect EUR/USD to go down.

1h

Went down as expected

1d

Went down 83 pips on the day, but quickly reversed

USD/JPY

We expect USD/JPY to go up. The tariff announcements dwarfed all other news though.

1h

1d

The NFP did appear to pump it up a little bit, but then it continued downward.

USD/CAD

We expect USD/CAD to go up.

1h

97 pips over 3 hours.

1d

The day went up, but then the trend continued down

nfp-may

We expect USD to go up, but not as much it did in April.

EUR/USD

We expect EUR/USD to go down.

1h

Actually went up in the hour following it.

1d

I guess the candle for that day has a big wick, but no real effect I can see.

USD/JPY

We expect USD/JPY to go up, because NFP was slightly better than normal.

1h

Unexpectedly went down the hour after the release.

1d

It was a down day, and the start of a 4 day down trend. I expected an up day.

USD/CAD

We expect USD/CAD to go up.

1h

28 pip almost doji, followed by 68.9 pips of down surge.

1d

Also an unexpected down, and small down day.

nfp-june

We expect USD to go up, but not as much it did in April, nor May. Each month the excess to expected was less.

Honestly after seeing how little effect it had, I don't expect any noticeable difference

EUR/USD

1h

60 pip drop in 2 hours. I'm guessing there's a lot of news, creating a lot of noise, so the effect may or may not be great.

1d

85 pip down candle with green siblings. It seems to have had more of an effect than I expected.

USD/JPY

We expect USD/JPY to go up a little, because NFP was slightly better than normal.

1h

89 pips up over 2 hours.

1d

154 pip up day.

USD/CAD

We expect USD/CAD to go up.

USD/CAD 1h

37 pip almost wicky candle, just like last month, but no surge this time.

USD/CAD 1d

Two greens in a pond of red, but not much to write home about.

nfp-july

EUR/USD

Again, we expect a small up-tick for USA, which is a down-tick for EUR.

EUR/USD 1h

72 pip noisy down candle, followed by an up candle. Good choice not to trade at this time.

EUR/USD 1d

Actually at an apex of down-ness.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY 1h

146 pip giant candle.

USD/JPY 1d

179 pip up day. Also at the start of small trend.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD 1h

38 pip up candle followed by 45 pip down.

USD/CAD 1d

A down day, but at the start of a small uptrend

[](https://www.tradingview.com/x/uEqvq4Rl/

CPI

Always released at 10:30pm BNE (UTC+10).

TLDR: CPI tells us how much the cost of living has increased. If it goes up, the fed may raise interest rates, which may cause more people to invest in USD and make it go up.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key economic indicator that measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services.

It reflects inflation trends and is closely watched by central banks, traders, and policymakers.

When the actual CPI figure differs from the expected value, it often triggers sharp market reactions: a higher-than-expected CPI suggests rising inflation, which can lead to expectations of interest rate hikes and typically strengthens the USD; conversely, a lower-than-expected CPI may signal weakening inflation, reducing rate hike expectations and often weakening the USD.

These shifts can cause immediate volatility in currency pairs, especially on hourly charts, and influence broader trends on daily timeframes.

cpi-april

Slightly less than expected. We expect a small drop in USD

EUR/USD

EUR/USD 1h

Not much change. USD went down as expected.

EUR/USD 1d

Big up candle for the day.

USD/JPY 1h

Went down as expected. Part of a short trend.

USD/JPY 1d

Went down a lot that day

USD/CAD 1h

Start of a small down surge.

USD/CAD 1d

Middle of a down trend

cpi-may

Like 30% lower than expected, so we expect a drop in USD

EUR/USD

We expect an uptick in EUR/USD (because that means USD goes down).

EUR/USD 1h

It's weird that we expect it to take the price down but the it's the only green candle in a flood of red.

EUR/USD 1d

Not much change, but it goes up after, which is contrary to what we expect.

USD/JPY

Expecting down. Got down.

USD/JPY 1h

Expecting a tick down. It's a 33 pip doji at the bottom of a 161 pip small dip. It's like tho whole dip was for that one candle.

USD/JPY 1d

50% wick down candle, at the start of an 8 day down run.

USD/CAD

We expect a slight drop.

USD/CAD 1h

Expected down, but it's at the bottom of the up surge. News generally seems to come with wicks.

USD/CAD 1d

It seems like it turned the curve around from the NFP up.

cpi-june

The CPI was exactly what was expected. Expecting no change in price.

EUR/USD 1h

Stopped an up sweep. I guess it silenced all the traders that were hopping to profit from a change from expectations ? I'm just speculating with my teensy knowledge.

EUR/USD 1d

Similar pattern. After it hit, things were pretty flat for a few days; well the uptrend had a pause.

USD/JPY 1h

Small bump in down movement.

USD/JPY 1d

Not much change, as expected.

USD/CAD 1h

Just part of a down sweep. Seems like the news doesn't affect price most of the time.

FOMC rate decision

The FOMC Rate Decision is a scheduled announcement from the U.S. Federal Reserve that reveals whether interest rates will be raised, lowered, or held steady. It’s made by a group of policymakers called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), who meet roughly every six weeks to assess the health of the U.S. economy.

Higher interest, reduces borrowing, which slows down the economy. However the USD becomes a more attractive investment option, so demand (and thereafter price), for USD increase.

For non-traders, think of interest rates as the cost of borrowing money — when rates go up, loans become more expensive, which can slow spending and inflation. Because the U.S. dollar is tied to these rates, any change (or even hint of a future change) can cause the USD to strengthen or weaken immediately. Traders around the world watch this decision closely, as it often triggers sharp movements in currency markets, especially in the minutes and hours following the release.

How FOMC Rate Hikes Affect the USD

1. Fed raises interest rates to slow inflation.
2. Banks follow suit, increasing lending rates.
3. Loan costs rise for mortgages, business loans, and credit cards.
4. Consumers and businesses borrow less, reducing spending.
5. Economic growth slows, easing inflation pressure.
6. USD assets offer higher returns, attracting foreign investment.
7. Demand for USD increases, causing its value to rise.

fomc-june

4 am Brisbane time

No change, as expected.

EUR/USD 1h

A big 68.7 pip noisy move over 2 hours.

EUR/USD 1d

An indecision doji.

USD/JPY 1h

A humongous 76 pip wicky candle. Even with no difference to the expected value. It creates a lot of noise in the price.

USD/JPY 1d

Another reasonably big wick.

USD/CAD 1h

40 pip wicky candle

USD/CAD 1d

Another wick. It does seem to affect the markets quite a bit.

fomc-september

A 0.25% drop as expected.

EUR/USD 1h

Giant 94 pip noisy candle.

EUR/USD 1d

We expect a drop in USD (because the interest is lower than last time), so that would be a rise in EUR/USD, but we get the opposite.

A fair amount of wick though.

USD/JPY 1h

137 pip noisy candle

USD/JPY 1d

A medium up candle. We expected down due to decreased interest rates.

USD/CAD 1h

Giant 60 pip candle.

USD/CAD 1d

I didn't expect the price to go up.

fomc-october

The rate dropped another 0.25% - but it was already expected.

Probably the USD will go down because people would move their money elsewhere with more interest.

EUR/USD 1h

Giant 67 pip down candle. Expected it to go up though, which would mean a declining USD.

EUR/USD 1d

An 80 pip down day.

USD/JPY 1h

86.8 pip up candle. The noise is expected, but I would have expected USD to drop; not increase in price.

USD/JPY 1d

I don't know why USD goes up when the interest rate is decreasing.

USD/CAD 1h

50 pips, but up instead of down.

USD/CAD 1d

71 pip pin candle. It's red, as expected, but only a little downness.

Tuesday 2025-04-01

9:50 am - Japan manufacturing index.

• Previous: 14
• Expected: 12
• New: 12

10:30 am - Australia retails sales

• Previous: 0.3%
• Expected: 0.3%
• New: 0.2% (-0.32% deviation)

Not much change. I think everyone was waiting for the reserve bank announcements later that day

01:30 pm - Australia RBA rate and announcements

• Previous: 4.1%
• Expected: 4.1%
• New: 4.1%
• Total movement: 37 pips

07:00 pm - Europe Harmonized Consumer price index

The Core (removes volatile items like energy, food, alcohol and tabacco) and non core. Also Mom (Month on month) and YoY (Year on year).

The chart may be an hour early due to daylight savings, or maybe the response is delayed an hour.

Wednesday 2025-04-02

12:00 am - USD PMI

• Previous: 50.3
• Expected: 49.5
• New: 49 (-0.5 deviation from expected)

EUR/USD: 27 pips.

AUD/USD: 32.9 pips

USD/JPY: 49.5 pips

8:20 am - USA Fed's Goolsbee speech

EUR/USD - 11.9 pips

AUD/USD - 5.7 pips

USD/JPY - 11.4 pips

10:15 pm - USA ADP Employment change (March)

• Previous: 84k
• Expected: 105k
• New: 155k (0.82 deviation)

EUR/USD - 13 pips

AUD/USD - 3.9 pips

USD/JPY - 29.5 pips

Thursday 2025-04-03

6 am - US Tariff announcements

EUR/USD - 101 pips

AUD/USD - 83.2 pips

USD/JPY - 95.2 pips

10:30 am - Australia trade balance

• Previous: 5156M
• Actual: 2568M
• Expected: 5600M (Diff -2.08)

The difference between actual and expected was quite big, but it looks like it had barely any effect.

Friday 2025-04-04

12:00 am - USA ISM services PMI

Institute for Supply Management (ISM) (Purchasing Managers’ Index)

Scale: 0 to 100

• Above 50 → Expansion in services sector
• Below 50 → Contraction

Example Impact

• If the ISM Services PMI rises unexpectedly (e.g., from 54.9 to 56), it may trigger bullish sentiment for USD pairs like USD/JPY or EUR/USD = Conversely, a drop below 50 could prompt traders to short the USD, anticipating dovish Fed moves

Numbers

• Previous: 53.5
• Expected: 53
• Actual: 50.8 (Deviation -1.10)

My expectations

I expect a small short of the USA; maybe like 20 pips.

Actual result

EUR/USD

Extra volume, 24 pip up for EUR. Followed by 4 USD up candles (EUR/USD candles).

USD/CAD

22 pip USA drop followed by a slower longer rise.

AUD/USD (not on the list)

Actually USD actually went up, the opposite to what I expected, by 35 pips

USD/JPY

Big 35 pip fake drop. Would have been nasty to have a trade open at that time.

10:30 pm - CAD + USA combined

AI Evaluation for USD/CAD

📈 USD/CAD Reaction Expectation Based on This News

This data set paints a clear divergence between U.S. and Canadian labor market performance for March, which is likely to strengthen USD/CAD — meaning the U.S. dollar could rise against the Canadian dollar.

🇺🇸 U.S. Labor Market: Stronger Than Expected

• Nonfarm Payrolls: 228K vs 135K expected → Big upside surprise【+1.44 deviation】
• MoM Earnings: 0.3% as expected, but up from 0.2% prior → steady wage growth
• YoY Earnings: Slight miss at 3.8% vs 3.9%, but still robust

These figures suggest resilient job creation and stable wage growth, which could support continued Fed hawkishness or delay rate cuts — bullish for USD.

🇨🇦 Canadian Labor Market: Weaker Than Expected

• Net Employment Change: -32.6K vs +12K expected → significant downside surprise【-1.34 deviation】
• Unemployment Rate: 6.7%, unchanged from expected, but up from 6.6% prior

This signals labor market deterioration, which may pressure the Bank of Canada to ease policy or at least hold rates — bearish for CAD.

💱 USD/CAD Outlook

• Expected Impact: USD/CAD likely to rise, reflecting stronger U.S. fundamentals and weaker Canadian data.
• Short-Term Bias: Bullish USD/CAD, especially if oil prices (a CAD driver) aren’t rallying to offset the employment miss.

Actual change

USD/CAD

Some delayed 40 pip high volume moves. Mostly upward. Direction matches AI evaluation.

15 Minute chart

Daily chart

A big fat volume candle up, then down

EUR/USD

Big fat 61.4 EUR down candle

USD/JPY

59.7 pip down candle

Saturday 2025-04-05

Fed's Chair Powell speech: 1:25 am

EUR/USD

Not much change.

USD/JPY

Not much change

USD/CAD

45 pip knock out bounce move

Monday 2025-04-07

Europe Retail sales Year on year

• Previous: 1.9%
• Expected: 1.8%
• Actual: 2.3%
• Deviation: 0.71

Year on year retail sales were actually higher than previous and expected.

I expected EUR to go up a little, but it just continued its downward trend.

Wednesday 2025-04-09

4:15 pm - JPY BoJ Governor Ueda speech

83 pip down and up over 1.5 hours

Thursday 2025-04-10

AI Interpretation

🧠 Interpretation

• Broad-based miss across all CPI metrics suggests inflation is cooling faster than expected.
• Negative MoM CPI is particularly striking — rare and often interpreted as a deflationary signal.
• Core CPI softness implies underlying demand is weakening, not just volatile components like food and energy.

💱 USD Reaction Expectation

• Bearish USD bias, especially against currencies with stronger inflation or hawkish central banks (e.g., EUR, GBP, AUD).
• Rate cut expectations may accelerate, especially if FOMC minutes show concern about growth or inflation undershooting.
• Bond yields likely to fall, reinforcing USD weakness.

EUR/USD

We expect USD to continue down. It did (EUR went up and USD went down, so the chart went up).

USD/JPY

USD Continued down as expected

USD/CAD

USD Continued down as expected. 25.3 pips of noise.

Friday 2025-04-11

7:45 pm - EUR ECB's President Lagarde speech

10:30 pm - USD Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Mar)

• Actual: 3.3%
• Deviation: -1.39
• Expected: 3.6%
• Previous: 3.7%

Suggests USD would go down a bit.

12:00 am (Saturday) - USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Apr) Prel

• Actual: 50.8
• Deviation: -2.22
• Expected: 54.5
• Previous: 57

Suggests USD would go down a bit.

EUR/USD

About 74 pips of noise

USD/CAD

About 90 pips of noise.

USD/JPY

The Michigan Sentiment Index alone had 120 pips