Thursday 2025-04-10
| Time | Currency | Event | Actual | Deviation | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4:00 AM | USD | FOMC Minutes | Report | |||
| 10:30 PM | USD | Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Mar) | -0.1% | -1.96 | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 10:30 PM | USD | Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar) | 2.4% | -3.16 | 2.6% | 2.8% |
| 10:30 PM | USD | Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) (Mar) | 0.1% | -3.16 | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 10:30 PM | USD | Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Mar) | 2.8% | -1.83 | 3% | 3.1% |
AI Interpretation
🧠Interpretation
- Broad-based miss across all CPI metrics suggests inflation is cooling faster than expected.
- Negative MoM CPI is particularly striking — rare and often interpreted as a deflationary signal.
- Core CPI softness implies underlying demand is weakening, not just volatile components like food and energy.
💱 USD Reaction Expectation
- Bearish USD bias, especially against currencies with stronger inflation or hawkish central banks (e.g., EUR, GBP, AUD).
- Rate cut expectations may accelerate, especially if FOMC minutes show concern about growth or inflation undershooting.
- Bond yields likely to fall, reinforcing USD weakness.
EUR/USD
We expect USD to continue down. It did (EUR went up and USD went down, so the chart went up).
USD/JPY
USD Continued down as expected
USD/CAD
USD Continued down as expected. 25.3 pips of noise.
